George Magnus – Economist and Author
As Senior Economic Adviser to UBS Investment Bank, George Magnus has occupied a front row seat as events have challenged financial systems around the world. Widely credited with having identified the trigger points leading to the financial crisis and its aftermath, his opinions and predictions are keenly sought.
His first book, The Age of Aging (2008) considered the economic and social consequences of rapid aging. His new book, Uprising, looks at emerging markets in the wake of the crisis.
This website gathers together many of George Magnus’s pieces since 2007 and offers an opportunity for feedback.
George Magnus: The Man Who Predicted the Sub-Prime Crisis Would Lead to Recession
Last March, when US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was busy reassuring the world that he for one was not concerned about global market gyrations, Magnus wrote a paper that now seems eerily prescient. As senior economic adviser to UBS, he suggested that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis could cause the end of the credit cycle “with potentially systemic economic consequences”.
Liquidity could dry up, exposing the stratospheric levels of debt in the system, with knock-on reactions in complex financial asset structures and prices. Financial institutions, he wrote, could put a freeze on lending, prompting a recession that would give rise to more defaults, a downturn in the credit cycle and a negative feedback loop with the economy.
So, how does it feel to forecast the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s? “I’d like to have predicted something really nice,” … view article